El texto que Mario Draghi, presidente del BCE, leyó en la rueda de prensa del Banco Central Europeo (BCE)
Ladies and gentlemen, the
Vice-President and I are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference.
We will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the Governing Council,
which was also attended by the President of the Eurogroup, Prime Minister
Juncker, and by the Commission Vice-President, Mr Rehn.
Based on our regular economic and
monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged.
Owing to high energy prices and increases in indirect taxes in some euro area
countries, inflation rates are expected to remain above 2% throughout 2012, to
fall below that level again in the course of next year and to remain in line
with price stability over the policy-relevant horizon. Consistent with this
picture, the underlying pace of monetary expansion remains subdued. Inflation
expectations for the euro area economy continue to be firmly anchored in line
with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the
medium term. Economic growth in the euro area is expected to remain weak, with
the ongoing tensions in financial markets and heightened uncertainty weighing
on confidence and sentiment. A renewed intensification of financial market
tensions would have the potential to affect the balance of risks for both
growth and inflation.
It is against this background
that the Governing Council today decided on the modalities for undertaking
Outright Monetary Transactions (OMTs) in secondary markets for sovereign bonds
in the euro area. As we said a month ago, we need to be in the position to
safeguard the monetary policy transmission mechanism in all countries of the
euro area. We aim to preserve the singleness of our monetary policy and to
ensure the proper transmission of our policy stance to the real economy
throughout the area. OMTs will enable us to address severe distortions in
government bond markets which originate from, in particular, unfounded fears on
the part of investors of the reversibility of the euro. Hence, under
appropriate conditions, we will have a fully effective backstop to avoid
destructive scenarios with potentially severe challenges for price stability in
the euro area. Let me repeat what I said last month: we act strictly within our
mandate to maintain price stability over the medium term; we act independently
in determining monetary policy; and the euro is irreversible.
In order to restore confidence,
policy-makers in the euro area need to push ahead with great determination with
fiscal consolidation, structural reforms to enhance competitiveness and European
institution-building. At the same time, governments must stand ready to
activate the EFSF/ESM in the bond market when exceptional financial market
circumstances and risks to financial stability exist – with strict and
effective conditionality in line with the established guidelines. The adherence
of governments to their commitments and the fulfilment by the EFSF/ESM of their
role are necessary conditions for our outright transactions to be conducted and
to be effective. Details of the Outright Monetary Transactions are described in
a separate press release.
Furthermore, the Governing
Council took decisions with a view to ensuring the availability of adequate
collateral in Eurosystem refinancing operations. The details of these measures
are also elaborated in a separate press release.
Let me now explain our assessment
in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. Recently published
statistics indicate that euro area real GDP contracted by 0.2%, quarter on
quarter, in the second quarter of 2012, following zero growth in the previous
quarter. Economic indicators point to continued weak economic activity in the
remainder of 2012, in an environment of heightened uncertainty. Looking beyond
the short term, we expect the euro area economy to recover only very gradually.
The growth momentum is expected to remain dampened by the necessary process of
balance sheet adjustment in the financial and non-financial sectors, the
existence of high unemployment and an uneven global recovery.
The September 2012 ECB staff
macroeconomic projections for the euro area foresee annual real GDP growth in a
range between -0.6% and -0.2% for 2012 and between -0.4% and 1.4% for 2013.
Compared with the June 2012 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, the
ranges for 2012 and 2013 have been revised downwards.
The risks surrounding the
economic outlook for the euro area are assessed to be on the downside. They
relate, in particular, to the tensions in several euro area financial markets
and their potential spillover to the euro area real economy. These risks should
be contained by effective action by all euro area policy-makers.
Euro area annual HICP inflation
was 2.6% in August 2012, according to Eurostat’s flash estimate, compared with
2.4% in the previous month. This increase is mainly due to renewed increases in
euro-denominated energy prices. On the basis of current futures prices for oil,
inflation rates could turn out somewhat higher than expected a few months ago,
but they should decline to below 2% again in the course of next year. Over the
policy-relevant horizon, in an environment of modest growth in the euro area
and well-anchored long-term inflation expectations, underlying price pressures
should remain moderate.
The September 2012 ECB staff
macroeconomic projections for the euro area foresee annual HICP inflation in a
range between 2.4% and 2.6% for 2012 and between 1.3% and 2.5% for 2013. These
projection ranges are somewhat higher than those contained in the June 2012
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections.
Risks to the outlook for price
developments continue to be broadly balanced over the medium term. Upside risks
pertain to further increases in indirect taxes owing to the need for fiscal
consolidation. The main downside risks relate to the impact of weaker than
expected growth in the euro area, particularly resulting from a further
intensification of financial market tensions, and its effects on the domestic
components of inflation. If not contained by effective action by all euro area
policy-makers, such intensification has the potential to affect the balance of
risks on the downside.
Turning to the monetary analysis,
the underlying pace of monetary expansion remained subdued. The annual growth
rate of M3 increased to 3.8% in July 2012, up from 3.2% in June. The rise in M3
growth was mainly attributable to a higher preference for liquidity, as
reflected in the further increase in the annual growth rate of the narrow
monetary aggregate M1 to 4.5% in July, from 3.5% in June.
The annual growth rate of loans
to the private sector (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) remained
weak at 0.5% in July (after 0.3% in June). Annual growth in MFI loans to both
non-financial corporations and households remained subdued, at -0.2% and 1.1%
respectively (both adjusted for loan sales and securitisation). To a large
extent, subdued loan growth reflects a weak outlook for GDP, heightened risk
aversion and the ongoing adjustment in the balance sheets of households and
enterprises, all of which weigh on credit demand. Furthermore, in a number of
euro area countries, the segmentation of financial markets and capital
constraints for banks continue to weigh on credit supply.
Looking ahead, it is essential
for banks to continue to strengthen their resilience where this is needed. The
soundness of banks’ balance sheets will be a key factor in facilitating both an
appropriate provision of credit to the economy and the normalisation of all
funding channels.
To sum up, the economic analysis
indicates that price developments should remain in line with price stability
over the medium term. A cross-check with the signals from the monetary analysis
confirms this picture.
lthough good progress is being
made, the need for structural and fiscal adjustment remains significant in many
European countries. On the structural side, further swift and decisive product
and labour market reforms are required across the euro area to improve
competitiveness, increase adjustment capacities and achieve higher sustainable
growth rates. These structural reforms will also complement and support fiscal
consolidation and debt sustainability. On the fiscal front, it is crucial that
governments undertake all measures necessary to achieve their targets for the
current and coming years. In this respect, the expected rapid implementation of
the fiscal compact should be a main element to help strengthen confidence in
the soundness of public finances. Finally, pushing ahead with European
institution-building with great determination is essential.
We are now at your disposal for
questions.
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